The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has secured its strongest-ever state election result in Saxony-Anhalt, nearly doubling its previous performance to capture 43.8% of the vote. The historic win has sent shockwaves across Europe, intensifying fears of a continent-wide nationalist wave as mainstream political parties suffer severe collapses.
In Sunday's election, the AfD won 39 seats in the 83-member Saxony-Anhalt parliament, falling just short of an outright majority. The local branch of the party is officially classified as a "confirmed rightwing extremist" organization by Germany's domestic intelligence service. Known for its use of Nazi imagery and its distinction between "biological" and "passport" Germans, the party is considered too extreme even for French far-right leader Marine Le Pen.
Meanwhile, the traditional parties of government suffered major losses. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) collapsed to 17.2%, less than half of its support in the same race five years ago. The centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has been a staple of German governance for over six decades, barely scraped by with 9.3%.
The results have alarmed centrist leaders across Europe, who warn of a "grave moment" for the continent, while nationalist factions celebrate what they call a "historic win" that is "just the beginning." This political shift comes at a critical time, with Sweden holding legislative elections next weekend and France facing a high-stakes presidential ballot next spring, followed by key parliamentary races in France, Italy, Spain, and Poland.
Some analysts caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from a single regional vote. Saxony-Anhalt is home to only 1.8 million voters and has been a far-right stronghold for a decade, with AfD support consistently doubling the national average. Tarik Abou-Chadi, a professor of European politics at Oxford University, remarked, "A far-right party winning a regional election in Germany is not more scary than a far-right party winning a regional election in France, the UK or the Netherlands," adding that the state should not serve as the sole basis for analyzing the AfD's overall electoral sociology.
Nevertheless, the AfD's influence is expanding nationally. The party currently leads in nationwide polls, holds a narrow lead over the SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania ahead of its upcoming elections, and ranks second even in liberal Berlin. This ascent mirrors a broader, decade-long trend across Europe, where nearly one in four voters now supports far-right parties.
According to research led by Matthijs Rooduijn, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, the share of Europeans voting for far-right parties in national elections rose to over 23% in 2026, up from roughly 10% a decade ago and just 5% in 1995. This growth, analyzed by more than 150 political scientists across 31 countries, has been particularly steep over the past three years. Far-right populist parties are now part of governing coalitions in Croatia, Czechia, Italy, and Finland, support a rightwing minority government in Sweden, and lead polls in Austria, Belgium, France, and Germany.
Despite this momentum, the far right has faced recent setbacks. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders's Freedom party (PVV) lost nearly a third of its seats to finish second last year, while in Hungary, Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party was comprehensively defeated by a centre-right rival in April. Cas Mudde, an expert on the European far right at the University of Georgia, noted that "the far right is here to stay, and many of its parties are as established as the (former) ‘mainstream’ parties," observing that their support naturally fluctuates like that of any other party.
The steady rise of these parties has ignited a debate over the "cordon sanitaire" or "firewall"—the refusal of mainstream parties to collaborate with the far right. Critics argue that keeping the AfD out of power in Germany has shielded it from the compromises and failures of governance, while forcing mainstream parties into unstable, ineffective alliances that frustrate voters. However, many political scientists reject this argument. A study of over 1,300 governments in 57 countries revealed that far-right parties actually become stronger when they enter government, averaging a six-percentage-point increase in their next election.
Rather than the firewall, experts point to the cost of living crisis and the gradual normalisation of far-right ideas as the true drivers of this political shift. Research indicates that while voter attitudes on topics like immigration have not changed dramatically, these issues have become far more decisive in voting behavior. This shift has been facilitated by mainstream parties and media adopting far-right framing, thereby legitimising these views. Austrian-Hungarian political scientist Gabriela Greilinger argued that the firewall debate misses the point entirely, stating, "Far-right politics and policies already constantly take centre stage, whether or not the far right is in power. There is no cordon around their ideas."
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Md. Kazi Bijoy is a dedicated tech enthusiast and content creator with a passion for digital innovation. With years of experience in the tech industry, he specializes in breaking down complex topics into easy-to-understand guides. When he isn’t writing, he explores the latest gadgets and researches emerging trends in the digital world.