A first-of-its-kind scientific study has concluded that the climate crisis likely acted as a destabilizing factor in the collapse of a massive glacier that triggered catastrophic floods in Nepal and Tibet last month. The disaster, which resulted in the deaths of more than 1,300 people and left over 5,000 missing, occurred when a 200,000-square-metre section of overhanging glacier and rock fell from Langtang Lirung mountain on 26 August.
Researchers identified unusually warm conditions in the region prior to the collapse, which sent an avalanche of 110 million cubic metres of snow and ice into the valley below. The mass dropped approximately 1,400 metres, hitting the valley floor with such intensity that it registered as an earthquake. This impact liquified the ice, sparking a freezing flood that surged downriver at speeds exceeding 110 mph, sweeping away homes, roads, bridges, and entire settlements.
Dr. Friederike Otto, a climate science professor at Imperial College London, whose team conducted the study, stated that communities in Nepal are paying with their lives for a crisis driven by fossil fuel emissions occurring thousands of miles away. According to the findings, the region has experienced about 2C of warming since pre-industrial times, with July and August 2026 reaching temperatures 5C above the 30-year average in the days leading up to the collapse. The study also noted that the freezing threshold in the Himalayas has risen by approximately 100 metres per decade since the 1980s, leading to higher and longer thaw temperatures that weaken mountain slopes shaped by permafrost.
The research, conducted by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, highlights that the disaster resulted from a compound crisis exacerbated by decades of greenhouse gas pollution. While a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 2015 contributed to slope failure, the study emphasizes that climate change is transforming the high mountain environment. Dr. Ben Clarke, a researcher at Imperial College, noted that the fingerprints of climate change are clear in the long-term environmental shifts surrounding the glacier. The study describes such large rock avalanches as rare, with an estimated frequency of one event every 1,000 to 10,000 years, suggesting that limits to adaptation are already being reached.
In response to the devastation, Nepal has filed a formal request with the UN loss and damage fund for financial support. Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal has called on major emitting nations, including China and India, to accept shared responsibility for the disaster. Madhab Uprety, a senior technical advisor for the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, stressed that only aggressive cuts to global emissions can address the losses faced by vulnerable frontline communities. He added that the recovery costs are substantial for a nation that has contributed virtually nothing to the climate problem.
“When warming destabilises the roof of the world, no amount of local adaptation can fully shield vulnerable people downstream from this scale of destruction. Without much faster action to transition to zero fossil fuel emissions we will inevitably see more disasters of this scale occurring in the years to come.”
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