Global ocean temperatures reached an unprecedented peak for the month of July, driven by a combination of human-caused global warming and the development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. According to the European Union's climate monitoring service, the average sea surface temperature (SST) across non-polar waters—measured between 60 degrees north and 60 degrees south—climbed to 20.96C last month. This surpassed the previous record of 20.89C established in 2023. Additionally, last month was the joint second-warmest July recorded globally, with average temperatures hovering 1.47C above estimated pre-industrial baselines.
Oceans are a vital regulator of the climate, absorbing most of the excess heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions and producing half of Earth's oxygen. However, as seawater absorbs this heat, it undergoes thermal expansion, which scientists estimate is responsible for roughly one-third of all recorded sea level rise to date. This expanding water encroaches on low-lying coasts and island nations. Furthermore, hotter seas are driving longer and fiercer marine heatwaves, which have bleached coral reefs on a mass scale and decimated kelp forests and fisheries. Warmer ocean surfaces also evaporate more heat and moisture into the air, intensifying tropical storms and loading them with heavier rainfall.
Around Europe, sea surface temperatures in July reached record highs along the Atlantic coast and in the western Mediterranean, contributing to widespread strong and severe marine heatwaves. Meanwhile, sea temperatures remained exceptionally high across much of the tropical Pacific, where El Niño conditions are developing and forecast to strengthen in the coming months. El Niño is a natural weather pattern in the Pacific that, when combined with human-driven global warming, can cause temperature spikes and more extreme weather.
On land, Western Europe experienced its hottest ever June and July, with prolonged hot and dry conditions fuelling extreme wildfires across the region. The average temperature across Western Europe for June and July was 21.62C, which is 2.79C above average and the highest for the two-month period. Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, noted that July 2026 was the third consecutive month of exceptional heat in Western Europe. She explained that persistent high-pressure systems trapped heat over the region, while dry soils reduced the ability to provide natural cooling. Burgess added that this is a clear example of how climate change is intensifying heat extremes, with heat and drought increasingly reinforcing one another.
The severe lack of moisture has left France, Spain, parts of Germany, and the UK recording exceptionally low rainfall and soil moisture. Soil moisture levels across much of Western Europe were significantly lower than in 2022, when the region experienced severe drought. Consequently, river levels have been much lower than average, and in some places exceptionally low. The Seine, Rhine, and Danube are among those particularly affected, and the Rhine falls to record low levels as drought strains Europe's rivers. Some rivers in Europe, including the Danube, have recorded extremely low water levels. These low flows exacerbate pressure on water supplies and irrigation, aquatic ecosystems, river transport, and energy production.
The prolonged hot and dry conditions have created highly favorable conditions for wildfires. Massive wildfires raged across Western Europe last month, showing "exceptional activity" in terms of the area burned, smoke, and emissions generated. Laurence Rouil, director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, stated that climate change is increasingly bringing the kinds of hot and dry conditions that favor large, high-intensity wildfires in southern Europe while extending the fire season northwards. Rouil explained that larger fires produce more smoke and inject it higher into the atmosphere, allowing it to travel much further. This means countries that experience relatively few wildfires could be increasingly affected by smoke traveling long distances. European wildfires have been described as "completely unprecedented" this summer.
Elsewhere, the UK is braced for its fifth heatwave of the year this week, as persistent dry weather puts further pressure on water supplies and could see more areas officially declared in drought. In the UK, the prolonged dry spell is increasing pressure on already-stretched water supplies. England and Wales recorded their driest July since records began 190 years ago, according to the Met Office, while large parts of England and all of Wales have already been officially declared in drought. The Environment Agency has warned that more areas of England could be declared in drought if dry conditions persist.
Highlighting the severity of the situation, Met Office climate information scientist Mike Kendon warned of a permanent shift in global weather patterns. "We are right now living in a time of historic and unprecedented change," Kendon remarked, adding that "evidence shows the climate of the 20th century has now gone." Scientists say El Niño may temporarily push global temperatures even higher, with its effects being felt against a backdrop of man-made warming, particularly the burning of fossil fuels. The world is now about 1.4C warmer on average than it was in the late 19th Century.
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