The investigation into the disappearance of 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie, the mother of "Today" show anchor Savannah Guthrie, has officially crossed the six-month mark. Guthrie vanished from her Tucson, Arizona, home on January 31, and authorities continue to treat the active case as a suspected kidnapping for ransom. However, as active leads slow, a security expert suggests the investigation may remain open indefinitely, with officials quietly suspecting the elderly woman is deceased.
Guthrie was last seen entering her residence shortly before 10 p.m. on January 31. Her family reported her missing the following day, February 1. By February 2, Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos officially declared the home a crime scene. Despite this designation, reporters Clara Migoya and Richard Ruelas walked up the driveway on February 3, observing dried blood droplets on the front entrance tiles. They noted that the property had already been turned back over to the family, with no yellow crime scene tape restricting access, and an Amazon package addressed to Guthrie still sitting on the porch.
Former detective and sheriff Mike Toth, who now works as a private investigator, remarked that the first 48 to 72 hours of a missing persons case are critical for collecting evidence before the probability of solving it drops significantly. Evaluating the early steps in the Guthrie case, Toth observed that some procedures were likely not handled as they should have been. The FBI joined the search early on, a move Toth described as uncommon but highly beneficial due to the agency's world-class evidence processing laboratories. Federal agents eventually recovered footage showing an armed, masked individual apparently tampering with Guthrie's front doorbell camera on the night of her disappearance.
Despite the early federal response, FBI Director Kash Patel expressed concerns over potential missteps. Speaking to Fox News Digital on July 23, Patel suggested that delays in the FBI's initial mobilization might have caused investigators to lose potentially critical doorbell camera footage.
The investigation has been complicated by a series of ransom notes sent to media outlets. The first of these communications arrived within the first week of Guthrie's disappearance. One note dated February 6, which was reported by NBC News, ABC News, and CBS News, claimed that Guthrie was dead. Months later, on June 26, TMZ reported receiving a third ransom letter. This letter claimed that two individuals were responsible for the abduction and asserted that video footage existed showing Guthrie and the "main guy" on a telephone in a "secure location." The sender offered to provide the phone's password in exchange for a Bitcoin payment sent to an address linked to a previous ransom note.
While Sheriff Nanos has voiced skepticism regarding the legitimacy of these ransom demands, the FBI has not entirely ruled them out. In a July 1 update, the FBI Phoenix field office stated that while some demands have been identified as illegitimate extortion attempts, other ransom letters could potentially be genuine and remain under active investigation. Toth noted that while actual ransom demands are rarely authentic in modern kidnappings, the FBI's public statements might be a strategic effort to encourage the perpetrators to lower their guard. Based on his professional experience, Toth believes there is a high probability that the kidnapper was someone familiar with Guthrie, given their apparent knowledge of her daily routines and movements.
Toth also pointed out that the apparent slowdown in public updates does not mean the investigation has stalled, as agencies often withhold critical details to filter out false confessions from attention-seekers. When a person disappears without a trace, they are normally declared legally dead after seven years. However, Toth explained that when evidence of a crime exists—such as the blood droplets at the scene and the fact that Guthrie's pacemaker has stopped registering data—investigators could petition a judge to declare her deceased much sooner. While the family might resist such a move in hopes that she is still alive, Toth believes that investigators are quietly working under the assumption that she has died.
Even if Guthrie's remains are never recovered, Toth emphasized that prosecutors could still secure a conviction if a suspect is identified. If law enforcement can definitively link a suspect to the masked individual captured on the doorbell camera, a district or county attorney could build a strong circumstantial case for murder. Toth concluded by noting that many defendants are successfully convicted of homicide based entirely on circumstantial evidence, meaning the lack of a body would not prevent justice from being served.
Though the FBI is "always willing to help," he says, the agency's involvement from so early on allowed "expert" assistance not all cases have at that stage in an investigation.
"They'll say things to get the people to lower their guard," he says. "I still think, personally, without knowing all the evidence, just with my experience, there is a high chance it is somebody that knew her. They clearly knew her movements, knew everything about her [routine]. How close to her knowing her, I don't know."
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