The Moon, a celestial body scarred by millions of years of meteor and asteroid strikes, is expected to experience a new collision this Wednesday. Scientists anticipate that the upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will impact the lunar surface on 5 August, travelling at approximately 2.43 kilometres per second, or about 5,400mph.
This impending collision, predicted to occur at about 02:35 EDT (06:35 GMT), is expected to captivate both amateur and professional astronomers.
According to Nasa’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the agency confirmed the collision trajectory after independent astronomers utilized public data to track the object, which originated from a January 2025 launch. The mission was a joint US-Japanese effort designed to transport scientific equipment and lunar landers to the Moon.
While parts of the Falcon 9 are reusable and designed to return to Earth, the upper section is typically shed in space, where it remains in orbit until it eventually strikes a celestial body.
The rocket segment in question is substantial, roughly the size of a five-storey building and weighing at least 4,000kg (8,800 lbs). Astronomer Bill Gray, who initially identified the object's path, predicts the impact will occur near the Einstein Crater—a region visible from Earth that receives daylight—and result in a crater measuring more than 17m (56ft) in diameter.
Experts emphasize that the event poses no threat to Earth. Nasa spokesperson Jimi Russell stated that the agency will continue tracking the booster for training purposes and intends to observe the impact site for scientific research.
Dr. Matt Bothwell, a public astronomer at the University of Cambridge, noted the event will be a spectacle for observers, stating, "It's something really huge smashing into the Moon.
It's not remotely dangerous, we can just watch the show."
Because the Moon lacks an atmosphere and possesses a weaker gravitational pull than Earth, the impact is expected to be particularly dramatic. Dr. Bothwell explained that the collision will likely launch a plume of dust upwards of 50km into the air, which will then spread laterally over time.
He noted that the moment of impact will be "more impressive than any [similar] explosion on Earth" because nothing will slow the object down, and nothing will prevent the estimated million kilograms of debris from rocketing into space.
While the event will not be visible to the naked eye, those with access to sophisticated telescopes may be able to witness a flash radiating from the surface.
Beyond the visual impact, scientists view this as a valuable educational experiment. Large telescopes across the Americas, alongside Nasa’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri probe, are slated to monitor the flash, the resulting dust plume, and the new crater. A citizen-science project is also mobilizing amateur astronomers to record the event.
By analyzing the trajectory and behavior of the debris, researchers hope to refine models of lunar impacts and potentially gain insights into the lunar subsurface composition, where fresh material will be exposed for the first time.
The incident also highlights growing concerns regarding human-made space clutter. Dr. Bothwell warned that the collision provides a cautionary tale, noting, "I think more people should be more worried about space debris. Every single year we put more stuff in orbit. Sometimes the satellites just collide, and they shatter into more pieces.
I think there's a worry about a runaway cascade, if we put so much stuff in orbit." According to the European Space Agency (ESA), there are around 54,000 objects floating in space that measure larger than 10cm. In total, humans have launched about 17,000 tonnes of objects into space since the Space Age began in 1957.
This occurrence follows a 2022 impact on the far side of the Moon by a Chinese Long March 3C rocket, which originated from the 2014 Chang'e 5-T1 mission. Decades earlier, Nasa launched objects into the Moon on purpose to collect data for the Apollo missions.
The Moon has endured countless blows over millions of years. Asteroids and meteors have given the satellite its signature pockmarked surface and network of craters. More recently, it has also experienced impacts from the plucky little probes and landers that Earthbound space agencies have sent hurtling its way.
Watching how much material gets thrown up, how high it goes and how it falls back should sharpen their models of lunar impacts – and even give clues about what lies just beneath the surface at the impact site, where fresh subsurface material will be exposed for the first time.
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