WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s decision to spend precious campaign time visiting traditional Republican strongholds has left Democrats feeling highly optimistic about their chances of reclaiming a narrowly divided Congress in the upcoming midterm elections on Nov. 3. The president’s first major midterm campaign blitz is taking him through a series of GOP-held states, including several that are not generally considered vulnerable. This strategy has raised eyebrows among political observers, particularly at a time when Democrats are becoming increasingly competitive in a growing number of races across the country.
However, political experts suggest that the strategy is understandable given the current political climate. Trump, who is currently saddled with some of the lowest approval ratings of his presidency, could have the unintended consequence of energizing Democratic voters if he traveled to more competitive swing states. His rallies are instead designed to spur base turnout far beyond the specific locations where he appears, while Republicans rely on an enormous fundraising advantage to blanket the airwaves with television advertisements that can spread his message widely.
“Trump is a double-edged sword,” Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said. “Does he have the potential to rile up Democrats and be used as a motivator to get them to turn out? Yes. But Republicans at this point have to focus on turning out their own voters.”
The president’s party traditionally loses congressional seats during midterm elections, and the stakes this year are exceptionally high. Trump’s ability to easily pass legislation through Congress and avoid aggressive investigations by Democratic-led committees hangs in the balance if Republicans lose control of either the House or the Senate. Currently, the GOP holds a narrow 53-47 majority in the Senate and a 218-to-214 advantage in the House, which includes one independent member who was formerly a Republican. Because the margins are so slim, flipping the party affiliation of even a single seat is a top priority for both parties.
Trump has pledged to barnstorm 35 competitive congressional races during the final month of the campaign. Kicking off the tour, the president visited Texas and Oklahoma on Oct. 1, followed by a stop in Alabama on Oct. 2. He is scheduled to campaign in Ohio on Oct. 3 and Nebraska on Oct. 5. Addressing reporters on Oct. 1 as he departed for Texas, Trump defended his travel itinerary, saying, “I won all of them by a lot. I’m going there just to make sure.”
Despite his confidence, the president’s approval rating has dropped precipitously, falling to 32% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,277 adults conducted from Sept. 17 to 20. Polling indicates that this unpopularity is largely driven by public frustration over his handling of the economy and the ongoing war on Iran, which has caused domestic gas prices to spike. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, highlighted these challenges during a press conference at the Capitol on Sept. 30. “Americans are frustrated with higher costs and a government they don’t think is working for them,” Schumer said. “We’re on the edge of taking back the Senate.”
Republican campaign strategists are fully aware of the historical headwinds. Montana Senator Steve Daines, who chairs the Senate Republicans’ campaign committee, noted that Ronald Reagan lost eight Senate seats during the sixth year of his administration, while George W. Bush lost six seats and Barack Obama lost nine seats at the same point in their presidencies. Daines, who is retiring at the end of the year, acknowledged that the current political climate “feels a lot like” Bush’s midterm in 2006, when gas prices doubled and 60% of the public opposed the war in Iraq. However, Daines expressed optimism that polls are tightening. “It’s a tough environment,” Daines remarked during the Richard Nixon Foundation’s Grand Strategy Summit on Oct. 1. “I think what’s key is bringing home the Republicans.”
Renee Cross, the senior executive director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, suggested that public anxiety over a Middle East war and high inflation might be even more intense today than it was during the Bush administration. “We have all that on steroids now,” Cross said. “Republicans got a huge drubbing in 2006. The conditions now are a lot worse.” Taylor added that while both Bush and Obama were unwelcome in key districts during their respective midterms, Trump’s safe-state itinerary is distinct. “I think it’s a little unusual,” Taylor said of the red-state rallies. “But we have certainly seen presidents in the past not be embraced when they’ve become unpopular.”
To counter these challenges, Republicans are leveraging a massive fundraising advantage to support their candidates through advertising. Federal Election Commission records from Aug. 31 show that the three major Democratic party organizations had $130.4 million on hand, compared to $238.6 million held by their Republican counterparts. According to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising, Republicans spent $200 million more on congressional ads in September than Democrats did. Furthermore, Trump has pledged to spend $400 million on the midterms through his MAGA political action committee, and the Senate Leadership Fund—which is spending $100 million in Texas alone—reported having $238.6 million on hand as of Aug. 31. “I don’t think resources are going to be an issue,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, told reporters on Sept. 23.
The massive financial resources are being heavily deployed in Texas, a state where a Democrat has not won a statewide election since 1994. Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, described Texas as an “exceptionally expensive” state to campaign in due to its 20 distinct media markets, which include major metropolitan areas like Houston and Dallas. “The cost of a statewide ad campaign here is the same as running a statewide ad campaign in Alaska and Iowa and Michigan and New Hampshire and Maine, and perhaps even throw in the Columbus market,” Jones said. Despite Trump winning Texas with 56% of the vote in 2024, the state’s Senate race has become unexpectedly competitive. Controversial Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the primary, is facing a strong challenge from Democratic state Representative James Talarico, with recent polls from Real Clear Politics showing the candidates within the margin of error. “It’s a state where Republicans don’t have to sweat out state level elections all that much,” Jones observed. “There’s a lot of sweating in the Republican Party today.”
Trump visited Texas on Oct. 1, touring a Peterbilt truck factory in Denton before delivering an hourlong speech. His appearance followed reports of internal friction, with Paxton reportedly complaining that Trump’s appearance at a Republican midterm convention in September had damaged his polling numbers—a claim Paxton’s campaign dismissed as “manipulated nonsense.” During his speech, Trump teased the attorney general, saying, “He can be a pain in the ass sometimes, I’ll be honest. Is he here, by the way? Oh, there he is. Good. I didn’t even know if he was here.” Trump has endorsed Paxton and publicly praised his loyalty, telling reporters before leaving the White House, “We have to win this election.”
In Nebraska, where Trump won 60% of the vote in 2024, the president will campaign in Grand Island on Oct. 5 for Republican Senator Pete Ricketts. Ricketts is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from independent candidate Dan Osborn, a union leader and Navy veteran. The race has become one of the ten most expensive in the nation, with overall spending reaching $24 million. Since Sept. 1, Republicans have spent $7 million on broadcast ads in Nebraska and have booked another $8 million before Election Day, according to AdImpact data. Osborn and his supporting groups have spent $3.5 million and reserved an additional $1.5 million.
Cross remarked that it was “pretty telling” that campaign advisers felt Trump needed to rally his base in historically safe states like Nebraska and Oklahoma. “I don’t necessarily think that it’s going to pay off for the Republicans the way that President Trump intends,” Cross said. “I just don’t know that in the long run if he just needs to just stay in the White House.”
During his Oct. 1 visit to Durant, Oklahoma—a state where he won 66% of the vote in 2024 and carried every single county in his three presidential campaigns—Trump declared that he was there to support congressional and gubernatorial candidates. “We have to make sure people get out and vote even in Oklahoma,” Trump said as he left Washington. “I go there because they want to see me there.” Richard Bensel, a government professor at Cornell University, expressed surprise at the president’s travel choices, noting that presidents typically focus on highly competitive swing districts. “It’s very surprising,” Bensel said. “I think it’s mainly a need for personal adulation. He has an incredible appetite for this kind of display of affection and strength and popularity.”
While Trump endorsed a broad slate of Oklahoma Republicans, he notably did not mention Republican Representative Stephanie Bice, whose Oklahoma City-area district is considered vulnerable to a challenge from Democrat Jena Nelson. Bice recently made headlines after leaked audio recordings revealed her criticizing the war in Iran and speaking about “Trump fatigue” during an event with students at Oklahoma State University. During his Oklahoma speech, Trump urged the crowd to contact friends in other states, adding, “We are worried about Michigan, we are worried about Texas. We are worried about a few states. It’s all about 35 different contests.”
On Oct. 2, Trump traveled to Mobile, Alabama, where he won 64% of the vote in 2024, to support candidates in the state’s gubernatorial and congressional races. Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville is running against former Democratic Senator Doug Jones for the governor’s mansion, while Republicans are also working to defeat Democratic Representative Shomari Figures following a redrawing of his congressional district. Republican state Representative Rhett Marques was scheduled to speak at the Mobile rally.
Trump has also focused on Alaska, where he won 55% of the vote in 2024. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is running for a third term but faced a setback during the first round of voting on Aug. 18, where former Democratic state Representative Mary Peltola led him 50% to 41%. Sullivan’s performance was complicated by a rival candidate who is also named Dan Sullivan. “I will go to Alaska to help Dan Sullivan get elected,” Trump told reporters on Sept. 2. “It’s close for one reason: they have a phony Dan Sullivan.”
To assist Sullivan, Trump held a White House press conference on Sept. 30 to highlight a trade agreement negotiated last year, announcing that South Korea had agreed to invest $200 billion in U.S. energy projects. Trump specifically highlighted a proposed $54 billion pipeline for liquefied natural gas in Alaska. However, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung subsequently stated on social media that the project would only proceed after a thorough review of its commercial viability and compliance with local laws. South Korea’s industry ministry confirmed in a statement, “No decision has been made on whether to invest or on the size of the investment.”
Trump utilized a similar White House announcement to boost Republican Representative Ashley Hinson’s Senate campaign in Iowa, where she is running to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst against Democratic state Representative Josh Turek. Trump won Iowa with 56% of the vote in 2024, but current polling shows Hinson and Turek in a virtual tie. During an Oval Office press conference, Trump announced a $15 billion steel plant for Iowa. Hinson, who attended the event, thanked the president, saying, “Thank you for what you and the entire team did to solidify this investment in American greatness and American manufacturing.” She called the plant “a game-changer for our state,” and Trump promised he would soon travel to Iowa to support her. “We’re going to do a great rally and we’ll all be there together,” Trump said.
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Md. Kazi Bijoy is a dedicated tech enthusiast and content creator with a passion for digital innovation. With years of experience in the tech industry, he specializes in breaking down complex topics into easy-to-understand guides. When he isn’t writing, he explores the latest gadgets and researches emerging trends in the digital world.